Bali rental yield: what the data actually shows (2026)

When a developer promises a "guaranteed 12–15% annual return," the first question is: based on what data? Bali's official statistics do not support that figure. Here is what they actually show. Demand is at a peak — that part is real. According to BPS (Statistics Indonesia), Bali received 6,948,754 foreign tourists in 2025 — a record: +9.7% over 2024 (6,333,360) and above the pre-COVID 2019 level (6,275,210). Arrivals have genuinely recovered and are still growing. But demand is not yield. The key metric for a rental business is occupancy. Per BPS, star-hotel occupancy on Bali (TPK) sits in a roughly 57–65% band and swings hard with the season: October 2025 — 64.57%, November 2025 — 57.97%, January 2026 — 56.67%. Non-star accommodation is lower still — about 33% in January 2026. Even professional hotels run a third to half of their rooms empty on average, and for a seasonal island that is normal. The average foreign trip is about 3 nights (3.1–3.2 per BPS). This is a short, high-turnover market: more cleanings, higher management costs, and a heavier dependence on a steady booking flow. Where guests come from (2024, BPS): — Australia — 1.54M (the largest market, roughly a quarter of arrivals); — India — 550K; — China — 448K; — United Kingdom — 295K; — South Korea — 294K; — USA, France, Germany, Russia — 160–260K each. The mix is diversified but noticeably Australia-dependent: a strength (steady demand) and a risk (a shock to one market hits occupancy). What the official statistics do NOT contain. BPS publishes neither ADR (average nightly rate) nor any villa / short-term-rental yield data. Any "average 15% on villas" comes from marketing, not a primary source. Treat such promises as a hypothesis to verify, not a fact. How to assess yield realistically before buying: — assume realistic occupancy (50–65%, not 90%), with low-season dips; — deduct management (typically 15–25% of revenue), cleaning, utilities, repairs and furniture wear; — factor in rental-income tax — a 10% final PPh on gross rent for residents; — remember the leasehold: if the land right runs 25–30 years, the return must also pay for the "burn-down" of that term; — ask for real 12-month occupancy reports, not a projection from a brochure. Bottom line: demand on Bali is fundamentally strong and growing, but durable yield is built on a conservative model — honest occupancy, real costs and taxes — not on a pretty number in a deck. Sources: — BPS Bali, foreign tourists 1969–2025: https://bali.bps.go.id/en/statistics-table/1/MjgjMQ==/banyaknya-wisatawan-mancanegara-ke-bali-dan-indonesia--1969-2024.html — BPS Bali, tourism overview (TPK occupancy, length of stay), Nov 2025 press release: https://bali.bps.go.id/id/pressrelease/2026/01/05/718008/perkembangan-pariwisata-provinsi-bali-november-2025.html — BPS Bali, tourists by nationality, 2024: https://bali.bps.go.id/en/statistics-table/1/MTkzIzE=/-banyaknya-wisatawan-mancanegara-yang-datang-langsung-ke-bali-menurut-kebangsaan-2019-2024.html